Post #2 - Let's Talk About Texas

A key hypothesis I’m carrying into this project is that it doesn’t matter where a team recruits – all that matters is the level of natural talent and the growth curves of the players that come in. In order to prove this hypothesis, I’ve started looking at current rosters in a variety of ways, many of which I hope to share. There are so many compelling data points that have already come out, but there is one that is hard to ignore – everyone recruits Texas. I say this without hyperbole. Texas is a dynamo for P5 rosters.

Methodology

How did I come to this not-shocking conclusion? I compiled the 2023 roster for every ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC 12, and SEC football team, plus Notre Dame and SMU – 70 teams in all. I pulled all of these rosters in Spring 2024, so there certainly could have been a few players removed during the season. I don’t differentiate walk-ons from scholarship players, as this is too difficult to parse and gets too close to “how impactful is a player?”, which is something that is outside of my scope. During the gathering process, I compiled 8,262 individual players, their positions, and their hometowns. “Hometown” in this case is simply what is listed on a player’s biography via his team’s website.

Why no G5 or FCS? I’ll start compiling those once the 2024 rosters are out. No worries.

The Results? Texas might produce even more elite talent than you think.

Among the 70 teams aggregated, 48 states were represented on their collective rosters, plus Washington DC. Also, a surprising 27 other sovereign nations were represented on 2023 rosters (a topic all its own that I hope to address very soon!).

But this is where Texas dwarfs them all.

Of the 8,262 players on 2023 rosters among power teams, 1,088 of them list a location in Texas as their hometown. That’s 13% of all P5 players in 2023. (The Dallas-Fort Worth metro alone supplied 5% of them, but that’s for another day.) Texas put more players on 2023 Power 5 rosters than the second most generous state (Florida, 746 players) and fifth most giving state (Ohio, 292) combined. If you add up the number of roster spots filled by players from the bottom 25 states on the list (that’s New York, all of New England, the Dakotas, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Nebraska, Minnesota, Colorado, Arkansas, Hawaii, Oregon, Nevada, West Virginia, Idaho, Delaware, New Mexico, Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska), plus Washington D.C., Texas is still represented by 95 more players (1,088 to 993). (See the breakout for all states here. )

Where Do Texas Natives Play in College?

Now, it’s a fair question to ask if there’s a lot of players from Texas because there’s also a lot of Power teams in Texas. This is true. With SMU moving to the ACC, there will be seven teams playing in a Power Conference in 2024. And, not surprisingly, each of these teams recruits Texas heavily.

The best way to illustrate how extensively the Texas teams recruit their home state is by looking at the state the most players come from on each roster. Most teams, but not all, have a preponderance of players from the state the college is located in. (I’ll address this in a future post.) Each of the Texas teams recruits their home state at a rate disproportionate to their non-Texas peers.

Of the 70 Power Conference squads, the seven from Texas were among the nine most frequent recruits of their home state. There’s talent concentrated in various pockets across the country, including in California, Florida, and Georgia, but even big-name schools like USC, Florida and Florida State, and Georgia go outside of their borders to fill out their squads at a more frequent rate than Lone Star State schools.

However, even with this glut of talent for the top Texas teams to recruit from, there’s still plenty left for other Power Conference teams as well.

Texas is the only state that has at least one player on all 70 power team rosters. That includes Syracuse, that includes Miami (FL), that includes Oregon State. In fact, if you count just the Texas players who played out of state in 2023, the 523 of them rank below only Florida, California, and Georgia, still well ahead of fifth place Ohio.

Other Compelling Texas Numbers

The depth of talent in Texas is a boon for schools in more rural neighboring states. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Arkansas each rely heavily on Texas high schoolers to help fill their rosters:

Power Conference schools known for having tougher admissions also do significant recruiting in Texas, with players heading around the country.

In all, 47 out of 70 Power Conference teams had at least 5 players from Texas on their roster in 2023. And 69 out of 70 teams had at least two players from Texas - North Carolina being the lone roster with a singular Texan. (See the whole list here.)

Why does it matter?

Recruitment is not so much a reflection of how close the talent is to your favorite school as it is finding the best talent possible that wants to play for your team.

Texas is the rare place in the United States that can serve both needs – it has more than 500 players deemed by coaches to be talented enough to play for seven of the most elite college football teams that also happen to be based in that state. And yet, there’s enough left over for the 63 other P5 teams to export at least one player to their campuses.

Recruiting is a game of searching far and wide. Some teams have the benefit of having a cache of talent nearby, while other teams need to scour a bit more.

Texas is unique in its ability to be helpful to a team, regardless of their recruiting reality.

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